Overview
- IEA chief Fatih Birol, speaking Monday at G7 talks in Paris, said commercial oil inventories are shrinking very fast and may last only several weeks.
- Governments have tapped emergency reserves to plug the gap, with 400 million barrels authorized and about 164 million drawn by May 8, adding roughly 2.5 million barrels a day that Birol cautioned are not endless.
- IEA data show a record 246 million‑barrel draw in March and April and a revised outlook that global supply will trail demand by about 3.9 million barrels per day across 2026.
- The Iran conflict has restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel that carries about a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and also handles liquefied natural gas shipments.
- Oil prices fell more than 2% after Monday’s late announcement pausing a planned U.S. strike on Iran, yet the IEA warned summer demand for diesel, jet fuel, gasoline, and fertilizer could lift food costs and broader inflation.