Overview
- IEA chief Fatih Birol, in an Associated Press interview Thursday, warned Europe has “maybe six weeks or so” of jet fuel left and said flight cancellations could start soon if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen.
- The Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint that normally carries about a fifth of traded oil, and more than 110 loaded tankers are waiting in the Persian Gulf as damage, insurance concerns and shipping hesitancy keep flows constrained.
- Europe’s vulnerability is acute because roughly 75% of its net jet-fuel imports come from the Middle East, and ACI Europe told EU officials last week that a systemic shortage could hit within about three weeks without stable passage.
- Airlines and airports have begun to react, with KLM cutting 160 European flights next month, several carriers adding fuel surcharges, and reports of fuel rationing at some airports as operators prepare contingency plans.
- Recovery will be slow even after a ceasefire, the IEA said, citing damage to more than 80 regional energy assets and warning some output may take up to two years to restore, with poorer countries likely to be hit first while the United States is more insulated.