Overview
- The IEA projects global supply will exceed demand by about 4.25 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026.
- Its implied full-year surplus stands near 3.69 million barrels per day, narrowing from last month’s 3.84 million estimate.
- The agency raised 2026 demand growth to roughly 930,000 barrels per day and lifted supply growth to about 2.5 million barrels per day, with around half from outside OPEC+.
- OPEC+ has paused further output hikes for the first quarter after increasing production through 2025, and the IEA says crude runs will fall as refineries enter seasonal maintenance unless producers restrain supply.
- Inventories remain high, including substantial volumes held at sea, and recent disruptions—such as reduced Venezuelan exports and Iran-related risks alongside Kazakhstan outages—have uncertain lasting effects on the balance.