Overview
- The IEA, which published its monthly oil report on July 9–10, projects a roughly 1.0 million barrels per day decline in global oil demand for 2026, the first annual fall since 2020.
- Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz partially resumed in June and lifted production, but transit volumes remain well below pre-war levels and have proven fragile after renewed U.S.–Iran exchanges slowed flows again.
- Governments are planning multi-year purchases to refill strategic petroleum reserves emptied during the crisis and the United States expects to receive returned barrels under exchange deals at about 1.28 barrels returned for each barrel released.
- The IEA cut its Russian production forecasts because of sustained Ukrainian strikes on refineries and transport infrastructure, and that damage has helped tighten refined-fuel markets even as crude supply improved.
- Refining margins for gasoline and diesel have jumped to multi-year highs, keeping pump prices elevated for consumers and raising the risk that the market will only move into surplus if tanker routes and refineries fully and safely restart.