Overview
- The International Energy Agency reported Wednesday that OECD countries have drawn reserves sharply and global recorded stocks fell by about 252 million barrels to June 12, leaving OECD inventories at their lowest level since 1990.
- The IEA coordinated emergency releases of 400 million barrels from member strategic reserves to replace lost Gulf exports after the Iran war disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
- High prices and war-related disruption have weakened consumption, prompting the IEA to cut its 2026 global oil demand forecast by roughly 1.1 million barrels per day, the largest annual drop since 2020.
- Market prices have fallen from March peaks above $110 a barrel to roughly $78 for Brent as reports of a US–Iran framework and a potential restoration of Gulf exports plus higher output elsewhere raise the prospect of oversupply as soon as mid‑2026.
- Continued Ukrainian long‑range strikes have reduced Russian output by about 5% year‑on‑year and led the IEA to trim this year’s Russian production outlook by about 200,000 barrels per day, which complicates near‑term balances even as analysts warn of a 2027 surplus.