Overview
- The International Energy Agency says OECD crude and product stocks have fallen by about 163 million barrels since the regional war began and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on 28 February.
- The IEA organized a planned 400 million-barrel emergency release from member reserves and had distributed 252 million barrels by 12 June to relieve tight supplies.
- The agency cut its 2026 oil-demand forecast by roughly 1.1 million barrels per day and reported preliminary data showing second-quarter deliveries down about 5 percent year-on-year.
- The IEA warned that continued emergency withdrawals reduce the safety margin against further shocks and said withdrawals may slow in June–July after an announced Iran–U.S. understanding to end the fighting.
- The IEA projects a conditional demand recovery of roughly 2 million barrels per day in 2027 if shipping through key routes is restored, prices ease, and economic conditions improve.