Overview
- Oil and product flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen from roughly 20 million barrels per day to a trickle as attacks on vessels continue, including reported strikes near Iraq’s Umm Qasr.
- The IEA projects global supply will drop by about 8 million barrels per day in March, with Gulf producers cutting roughly 10 million barrels per day and more than 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity shut.
- Brent crude briefly crossed $100 before retreating to the mid‑$90s, underscoring continued market volatility despite the stock release.
- Member pledges to the 400 million‑barrel action include about 172 million from the US over 120 days, roughly 80 million from Japan, and 13.5 million from the UK, exceeding the 183 million barrels coordinated in 2022.
- Iran’s leadership has signaled the strait will remain closed, the White House suspended the Jones Act to ease domestic fuel logistics, and the IEA says only restored tanker traffic can normalize supply.