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IEA: Middle East War Is Rewiring Global Energy Investment to $3.4 Trillion

The conflict is driving a shift toward power grids, LNG and domestic supply, raising financing costs, slowing capital projects.

Overview

  • The IEA’s World Energy Investment 2026 report projects global energy investment will reach US$3.4 trillion, with roughly US$2.2 trillion focused on electricity-related spending and about US$1.2 trillion for oil, gas and coal.
  • Oil investment is set to fall for a third straight year to below US$500 billion despite higher crude prices, a result of long project lead times, supply constraints and a tighter offshore rig market.
  • Natural gas spending is forecast to rise to US$330 billion, the highest in a decade, driven by a wave of new LNG export projects in the United States and Qatar and by moves to secure regional supplies.
  • Renewables and power infrastructure remain central: renewable investment should reach about US$665 billion in 2026 (including US$365 billion for solar) while electricity supply and networks are expected to total nearly US$1.6 trillion with about US$550 billion for grids and over US$100 billion for battery storage.
  • The report, published May 28, warns that the war’s disruption of routes such as the Strait of Hormuz is prompting pipeline projects and domestic sourcing, increasing coal use in parts of Asia, and raising financing costs that may slow costly projects in emerging economies.