Overview
- The International Energy Agency updated its Coal Mid-Year outlook on Thursday, September 10, forecasting global coal consumption will rise 1.2% in 2026 to a record 8.94 billion tonnes.
- The IEA says the main driver is sharply higher natural gas and LNG prices after disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which prompted gas-dependent power systems to switch fuel toward coal.
- An unusually strong El Niño raised cooling demand and reduced hydropower output in parts of Asia, further increasing electricity needs and supporting higher coal use.
- Chinese coal output fell after safety inspections following a major May mine accident, which tightened global supply even as overall world production is still set to remain above 9 billion tonnes in 2026.
- The agency expects inventories to ease as consumption rises, but it warns the 2027 path is conditional on whether LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz rebound, a development that will affect prices, power costs, and near-term decarbonization plans.