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IEA Forecasts Record EV Sales as Oil Shock Reignites Demand

Rising fuel costs from the Iran conflict are making lower-priced Chinese batteries more influential in global EV buying decisions.

Overview

  • The International Energy Agency released its Global EV Outlook on Wednesday and projected roughly 23 million electric vehicle sales in 2026, equal to nearly 30% of new-car sales and a potential global fleet of about 510 million by 2035.
  • Global EV sales fell about 8% in the first quarter of 2026 after policy rollbacks in China and the United States, but April data and industry enquiries show a strong rebound in Europe and several emerging markets.
  • Chinese automakers supplied the majority of EVs in 2025 and produced more than 80% of global battery cells, driving lower-priced models that are fuelling rapid uptake in Southeast Asia and Latin America.
  • The market is diverging: Europe and many developing markets are accelerating purchases while the U.S. market stalls at roughly 10% EV share because of reduced incentives and limits on Chinese competition.
  • Higher retail fuel costs are prompting more drivers to trade in gasoline cars and raise used-EV demand, which could speed adoption but also put pressure on charging infrastructure and household electricity bills.