Overview
- Citing its May 20 report, the IEA projects roughly 23 million plug-in vehicle sales in 2026, equal to about 28% of new-car sales and counting plug-in hybrids and extended-range models as EVs.
- The forecast builds on first-quarter data showing 3.9 million plug-ins sold in Q1 2026, an 8% year-on-year decline that the IEA links to incentive rollbacks and policy changes in China and the United States.
- A fuel-price driven surge in March, tied to strikes and disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, pushed monthly records in about 30 countries and helped used-EV turnover and demand rebound into April.
- China remains central to the outlook, accounting for roughly 60% of global EV sales, producing about 80% of battery cells, and exporting low-cost models that are lowering prices and expanding uptake in Europe, Southeast Asia and Latin America.
- The rapid shift is stressing charging networks, raising household electricity use and reshaping the used-car market, which could force faster policy, infrastructure and pricing responses from automakers and governments.