Overview
- The IEA’s monthly report projects global supply growth of about 3.0 million bpd in 2025 and 2.4 million bpd in 2026, saying the market has been in surplus since early 2025 with stock builds poised to accelerate.
- The agency warns the surplus could reach up to roughly 4.0 million bpd in 2026, reflecting faster output from OPEC+ and continued gains from non-OPEC producers.
- Crude futures fell on Tuesday, with Brent settling near $62.39 a barrel and WTI at $58.70, as traders weighed surplus risks and renewed U.S.–China trade tensions.
- OPEC kept its demand growth forecasts at about 1.3 million bpd for 2025 and 1.4 million bpd for 2026, diverging from the IEA’s estimates of roughly 710,000 bpd in 2025 and 699,000 bpd in 2026.
- OPEC highlighted the U.S., Brazil, Canada and Argentina as key non-OPEC supply drivers and, despite Brazil’s August drop of 68,000 bpd, maintained its outlook for Brazilian liquids growth of about 230,000 bpd in 2025 and 160,000 bpd in 2026.