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IEA Cuts 2026 Oil Demand Outlook as Gulf Disruptions Drain Stocks

IEA says record stock drawdowns will keep supplies tight through October.

Overview

  • The energy agency now expects global oil demand to fall by about 420,000 barrels per day to roughly 104 million barrels per day this year.
  • Global inventories are being depleted at a record pace after emergency reserve releases in March and April reduced recorded stocks by about 4 million barrels per day.
  • Flows from the Persian Gulf remain largely halted after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed, choking a key route for oil and gas shipments.
  • Brent crude spiked above $120 per barrel in March and was recently near $106, with the IEA warning of a deepening destruction of demand.
  • The agency projects a market that stays massively undersupplied until October and notes governments are curbing use through conservation, price controls or fuel rationing.