Overview
- IDC has revised its 2026 outlook to a 16.7% year‑over‑year decline in shipments, equal to about 200 million fewer phones, with the second half of 2026 expected to be the hardest hit.
- Memory prices for DRAM and NAND are expected to stay elevated through at least 2028, which IDC says will keep average selling prices high and slow price declines to roughly 1–2% per year starting in 2028.
- The cheapest phones are collapsing: the under‑$100 segment saw roughly a 60% year‑on‑year drop in Q2 2026 and manufacturers are trimming low‑margin entry models that shipped about 173 million units last year.
- Large vendors with scale and pricing power, including Apple, Samsung and Huawei, are best placed to absorb higher costs while smaller entry‑level Android brands face store closures, retrenchment or exit.
- Foldable and premium models are the main growth areas, financing and trade‑in programs are expanding in wealthy markets, and IDC expects unit recovery to begin only once memory supply normalizes around 2028.