Overview
- Industrial output fell 1.2% in December month on month, with declines in 12 of the 15 locations surveyed; Bahia (-10.1%) and Pará (-9.2%) saw the sharpest drops.
- For 2025 as a whole, national production rose 0.6% versus 2024, with seven areas topping the average: Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Goiás, Minas Gerais and Pará.
- São Paulo slipped 1.6% in December and contracted 2.2% in 2025, its worst annual result since 2020, and its roughly one‑third share of national industry weighed on the aggregate.
- Espírito Santo (+11.6%) and Rio de Janeiro (+5.1%) led annual gains on stronger extractive activity, while Mato Grosso do Sul (-12.9%) and Rio Grande do Norte (-11.6%) had the steepest annual falls tied to petroleum and biofuels.
- IBGE researcher Bernardo Almeida attributes part of the weakness to elevated borrowing costs curbing demand for durable goods, with São Paulo also hit by declines in petroleum derivatives and pharmaceuticals.