IBC-Br Upside Pushes Back Selic Cut Odds After Brazil’s Record Stock Run

Overview

• The Ibovespa set fresh highs on Thursday, touching about 166,070 intraday and closing at 165,568, then eased 0,46% on Friday to 164,800, leaving a weekly gain of 0,88%.
• Brazil’s IBC-Br rose 0,7% in November versus October and retail sales climbed 1% in the month, lifting interest‑rate futures and pushing market expectations for the first Selic cut toward March.
• The dollar swung above R$5,40 on Thursday before closing at R$5,368 and ended Friday at R$5,373, with moves influenced by shifting global headlines and improved risk appetite the day prior.
• The Central Bank ordered the extrajudicial liquidation of CBSF (formerly Reag), citing grave rule violations, forcing the transfer of large fund assets to new administrators.
• Federal Police said financial intelligence reports show strong indications of resource diversion and a potential systemic risk in a probe linked to Banco Master, which remains under investigation.