Overview
- IATA presented updated industry forecasts on June 7 that show passenger traffic still rising to about 5.1 billion in 2026 while industry profits fall from $45 billion in 2025 to $23 billion.
- The trade group says higher kerosene prices have sharply raised operating costs so airlines are passing some costs into fares but still seeing much smaller net margins.
- IATA flagged that carriers based in the Middle East face the steepest hit, with those airlines projected to move from top margins in 2025 to negative net margins in 2026.
- Near‑term effects already visible include a 3.4% year‑on‑year drop in April passenger traffic and route and capacity cuts at major hubs, for example Emirates trimming about one in six June flights.
- IATA also pointed to engine‑maker delivery delays and reliability problems and warned low‑cost business models are especially exposed because they cannot easily shift to higher‑yield customers.