Overview
- Under the mid-range scenario, global demand reaches 20.8 trillion RPKs by 2050 from 9 trillion in 2024, with alternative paths of 21.9 trillion and 19.5 trillion reflecting higher and lower growth cases.
- Asia-Pacific and Africa post the fastest gains at 3.8% and 3.6% CAGR through 2050, while Europe and North America grow more slowly at 2.5% and 2.8%.
- The quickest-expanding corridors include intra-Africa (4.9%), Africa–Asia-Pacific (4.5%), Asia-Pacific–Middle East (3.9%), intra-Asia-Pacific (3.9%), and Africa–North America (3.8%).
- IATA says the pandemic left a lasting demand gap that does not return to the pre-COVID GDP-aligned trend by 2050, even as long-run growth moderates from historical CAGRs of 6.1% and 4.5% to a projected 3.1%.
- IATA’s outlook draws on a validated econometric model using 500,000+ observations across about 41,000 country pairs, and it stresses enabling policies on infrastructure, market access, regulatory alignment, and a clean-energy transition.