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IATA Cuts Near-Term Seat Growth as Middle East War Disrupts Hubs

Rising fuel plus war‑risk costs now cloud an otherwise strong demand picture.

Overview

  • IATA, which updated its outlook Tuesday, said global seat capacity growth eased to 3.3% for March and is projected at 2.7% for April because airlines are cutting and rerouting flights around closed airspace.
  • February’s traffic was strong, with cargo demand up 11.2% year over year (measured in cargo tonne‑kilometres) and passenger demand up 6.1% (in revenue passenger kilometres) as the global load factor hit a record 81.4% for the month.
  • The late‑February conflict in the Middle East has severely impaired connectivity through Gulf hubs, with one industry report noting about 73% of available seat‑kilometres tied to the region were grounded within ten days of the outbreak.
  • Jet fuel averaged about $150 a barrel in the first three weeks of March after roughly $90 earlier in the year, pushing up operating costs and, according to IATA, contributing to higher airfares and longer, costlier routings for passengers.
  • Regional data underscore resilience, as Asia‑Pacific carriers carried 33 million international passengers in February, up 9%, and IATA reported Asia‑Pacific cargo demand up 13.6% with key lanes such as EuropeAsia rising 13.1% and extending multi‑year growth.