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IATA Cuts 2026 Airline Profit Forecast as Jet Fuel Soars

IATA says a 70% jump in jet fuel paired with Gulf airspace closures has halved the profit outlook for 2026 and raised the risk of carrier failures and consolidation.

Overview

  • IATA downgraded its 2026 net profit forecast to $23 billion after updating its mid‑year outlook at the Rio summit, reflecting much higher fuel and operating costs.
  • The trade body expects jet fuel to average about $152 a barrel in 2026, which will lift the industry fuel bill to roughly $350 billion and push fuel toward a third of operating costs.
  • Gulf airspace restrictions and reroutes caused by the Middle East conflict have lengthened flights, increased fuel burn and hit Gulf carriers hardest, with the region forecast to swing into losses.
  • Airlines are responding by raising fares, trimming or reshaping capacity and cutting unprofitable routes, moves that protect margins but may squeeze price‑sensitive travelers and smaller carriers.
  • Persistent delivery delays at Boeing, Airbus and engine makers are keeping older, less efficient jets flying, which adds maintenance and fuel costs and raises the risk of bankruptcies and consolidation.