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IATA Cuts 2026 Airline Profit Forecast After $100 Billion Jet‑Fuel Shock

Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven jet fuel toward $152 a barrel, forcing longer routings and route cuts that will sharply squeeze carriers’ margins.

Overview

  • IATA announced at its annual meeting in Rio de Janeiro that it now expects industry net profit of $23 billion for 2026 after a roughly $100 billion rise in jet fuel costs.
  • The trade group projects average jet fuel of about $152 per barrel in 2026, lifting the global airline fuel bill to roughly $350 billion and pushing fuel to more than 30% of operating costs.
  • U.S. carriers spent nearly $6.5 billion on jet fuel in April, a 78% year‑over‑year increase, even though fuel volumes flown were roughly unchanged.
  • Airlines have responded by trimming schedules, canceling or suspending routes, raising fares and fees, and rerouting flights to avoid restricted Middle East airspace, which raises fuel burn and operating costs.
  • The pain is not evenly spread: large network carriers with stronger balance sheets can pass more costs to customers while low‑cost and highly leveraged airlines face the highest risk of failure and further consolidation.