Overview
- Rafael Grossi said Wednesday that the agency’s best estimate is that the bulk of Iran’s highly enriched uranium is still at the Isfahan complex.
- On-site checks stopped after the June 2025 12-day war, leaving IAEA seals unverified and forcing reliance on satellite images, including a June 9, 2025 sequence showing 18 containers driven into an Isfahan tunnel.
- The IAEA reports 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity and believes about 200 kilograms sit in Isfahan tunnels, a short step from weapons-grade and enough for roughly 10 bombs if weaponized.
- Grossi said the material remains accessible to Iran and that the IAEA has discussed sending it abroad or blending it down, steps that would require a political agreement.
- The IAEA also seeks access to Natanz and Fordow, and Grossi said the 2015 nuclear deal is not a viable starting point given Iran’s exponential advances, which have made a new consensus harder to build.