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Hurricane Melissa Surges to Category 4 as Halloween Coastal Storm Track Remains Uncertain

Most guidance keeps the worst conditions offshore by Friday evening, with confidence still low for coastal zones.

Overview

  • The National Hurricane Center reports Melissa has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds and is forecast to strengthen further as it targets Jamaica early this week.
  • Forecasters warn of 15 to 30 inches of rain with life‑threatening flooding and landslides across Jamaica, parts of Haiti, and eastern Cuba as the slow‑moving storm approaches.
  • Jamaica is under hurricane warnings, with watches posted for parts of Haiti and eastern Cuba, as local outlets highlight the potential for devastating impacts Monday into Tuesday.
  • Separate from Melissa, a developing coastal low could bring periods of rain, gusty winds, and coastal flooding to parts of the U.S. East Coast Thursday into Friday, with model guidance split on the system’s exact track and timing.
  • Many local forecasts lean toward dry, breezy, and cool conditions for trick‑or‑treating Friday evening away from the immediate coast, while indirect U.S. impacts from Melissa include dangerous surf, rip currents, and beach erosion early in the week.