Overview
- Fausto was a Category 2 hurricane with roughly 100–105 mph winds about 1,300–1,500 miles east of Hilo on Saturday, and the National Hurricane Center is tracking its westward path.
- Long-period swells from Fausto are already producing dangerous surf and life‑threatening rip currents along Baja California and Southern California and are expected to raise surf on east‑facing Hawaiian shores starting late Sunday or Monday.
- Models and NHC forecasts through July 27–29 generally show gradual weakening to tropical‑storm strength as the storm moves into the Central Pacific, but ensemble spread leaves a real chance a slightly more southerly track could bring tropical‑storm‑force winds and heavy rain to parts of the islands.
- Hawaii emergency managers and the Honolulu Department of Emergency Management are coordinating resources, urging residents to review plans and be ready despite the current 5%–10% probability the islands will see tropical‑storm‑force winds.
- The Eastern Pacific is unusually active under El Niño, with nearby systems such as Genevieve and Tropical Depression Seven‑E developing and adding risks of additional large swells and faster intensity changes for coastal Mexico and shipping lanes.