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Hungary’s Election Puts Orbán on the Defensive as Magyar Takes Lead

An uneven system plus a large undecided bloc could still keep Fidesz in power.

Overview

  • Magyar’s Tisza leads new polls ahead of Sunday’s vote after a campaign focused on graft and public services, and prediction markets now favor him to win.
  • Hungary’s voting rules boost seat totals for district winners and fold some constituency votes into party lists, which can distort the link between vote share and seats.
  • Nearly 500,000 people registered for postal ballots that count only for party lists, a bloc that has strongly favored Fidesz in past elections.
  • Trump on Friday urged Hungarians to reelect Orbán after Vice President JD Vance campaigned in Budapest in open support.
  • Reports this week flagged Russian‑linked smears against Magyar and alleged EU leak contacts by Hungary’s foreign minister, sharpening concern over outside influence.