Overview
- Rep. Bryan Steil introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act on June 18 to bar covered congressional individuals from placing political or policy bets on prediction markets.
- The ban would apply to members of Congress, their spouses and dependent children and would cover wagers tied to the occurrence, nonoccurrence or extent of government policy, actions or political outcomes.
- Violators would face a civil penalty of $2,000 or 10% of the transaction whichever is greater plus any profits, could not use official or campaign funds to pay fines, and unpaid penalties could be referred to the Department of Justice.
- Steil plans to attach the measure to existing insider‑trading legislation (H.R.7008), so the provision must clear the House and Senate and be signed by the president before taking effect.
- The move follows House Oversight probes and a high‑profile arrest linked to Polymarket trading and could shift market access and compliance costs because Kalshi is CFTC‑regulated while Polymarket operates in a crypto regulatory gray zone.