Overview
- UNCTAD reports daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen about 95%, and the IEA says the disruption has removed millions of barrels per day from global supply.
- Shortages are now visible in several countries, with Sky News citing more than 600 Australian stations out of fuel and France reporting 18% of stations short of at least one product.
- Field reporting from Citrini Research describes Iran running the strait as a managed toll road with selective approvals and ships sailing without public tracking, indicating limited passage under Iranian control.
- Industrial fallout is widening as Asian petrochemical plants cut output, the IMF warns fertilizer gaps threaten planting season, and tech and medical suppliers face helium constraints tied to Qatar’s disrupted exports.
- Governments have approved a 400 million barrel emergency release, yet analysts warn that repairs, insurance reinstatement, and ship queues mean flows would take weeks to months to normalize even if fighting eases.