Overview
- Commercial vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to only a handful a day, with Kpler reporting as few as three visible transits on Tuesday, reflecting crude flows well below the pre‑war 14–15 million barrels per day level.
- U.S. Central Command says the strait 'remains open' but its own facilitation figures imply throughput near roughly 5–6 million barrels per day, which is far below normal and consistent with independent commercial trackers.
- India has already shifted purchases toward Russia and Latin America, and two state refiners suspended Iraqi loadings because full, laden tankers are now judged too risky for a Hormuz crossing.
- Yemen’s Iran‑aligned Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi ports, prompting at least two Saudi crude tankers to turn back in the Red Sea and forcing many shipments to reroute through the Suez/SUMED link or round the Cape of Good Hope.
- The combined effect of attacks, crew refusals and higher war‑risk insurance is lengthening voyages, increasing costs and delays for refiners and consumers and risking further strain on military resources that would be needed to secure both chokepoints.