Overview
- Renewed attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el‑Mandeb on Tuesday undermined talks and sent oil benchmarks higher as traders priced in prolonged disruption.
- Iran has said the strait will remain closed until Washington lifts sanctions, releases frozen Iranian assets and agrees to reparations, a position that negotiators say has stalled any deal.
- Brent crude traded around $89–$90 and U.S. WTI sat in the low $80s as the EIA raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $86.81 and the IEA cut its 2026 demand outlook because of ongoing shipping and production losses.
- U.S. supply buffers are strained: the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell below 300 million barrels and industry data showed an unexpected 9.1 million‑barrel crude build that is awaiting official EIA confirmation.
- Commercial traffic through Hormuz has plunged from roughly 125–140 daily transits before the conflict to single digits now, forcing longer, costlier routes, higher insurance and freight fees, and adding to inflationary pressure on consumers and shippers.