Overview
- U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei set off Iranian missile and drone retaliation across the region, with the IRGC broadcasting VHF warnings that no ship may pass the Strait of Hormuz.
- Marine tracking and security reports show traffic through the strait has slowed to a near standstill, with at least 150–200 vessels anchored and several tankers damaged as major shippers suspend crossings and insurers pull back.
- Energy prices jumped when markets reopened, with Brent briefly near $82 before trading around $78–$79, UK gas contracts up 30%–50%, and Europe’s TTF benchmark up 44%, while equities fell and safe-haven flows strengthened.
- QatarEnergy halted LNG production after strikes on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, and Saudi Aramco shut the 550,000 bpd Ras Tanura refinery after a drone hit, curbing near-term supply from two key Gulf producers.
- OPEC+ approved a 206,000 bpd output increase from April that analysts view as too small to offset a sustained chokepoint, with limited rerouting capacity and forecasts that a prolonged halt could push oil toward $100.