Overview
- Multiple oil majors, trading houses and tanker owners suspended crude, fuel and LNG transits through the Strait of Hormuz after the strikes, with vessels piling up near ports such as Fujairah, according to shipping data and Reuters sources.
- The IRGC claimed the waterway was effectively closed and EU naval mission officials reported VHF messages telling ships not to pass, while UKMTO said such broadcasts are not legally binding and advised cautious transit.
- Analysts expect crude to open higher when trading resumes, with estimates ranging from a $5–$10 jump to scenarios that could push Brent toward $100 if disruptions escalate or persist.
- Roughly one‑fifth of global petroleum liquids and significant LNG volumes move through Hormuz, leaving Asia’s major importers particularly exposed to even partial or temporary slowdowns.
- Policy buffers exist but are constrained, with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve at about 415 million barrels and a ~4–4.5 million b/d draw capacity, and any OPEC+ output response or Gulf pipeline bypasses unlikely to fully offset a prolonged chokepoint disruption.