Overview
- A mid-June memorandum between the U.S. and Iran has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said at least 20 million barrels moved through the waterway in a single 24‑hour span as stranded tankers began to depart.
- Global benchmarks have retreated toward the low $70s for Brent as traders price out the war risk premium and major banks including UBS and Goldman Sachs have cut near-term Brent forecasts.
- A cargo vessel was struck off Oman on Thursday, two U.S. officials told Reuters that Iran fired on the ship, and the IMO temporarily paused a voluntary evacuation plan, briefly reintroducing security risk to shipping flows.
- President Trump has urged a DOJ probe into pump pricing as retail gasoline lags crude, and the EIA notes pump prices fall slowly because they include refining margins, distribution, marketing and taxes plus refineries are still processing higher-cost barrels.
- Analysts warn the recovery is fragile because most recent flows reflect outbound ships leaving the Gulf, not full inbound loading, and mine clearance, insurance, crew logistics and thin inventories mean normalization will take weeks to months and could shape 2027 supply outcomes.