Overview
- Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, and the International Energy Agency says the conflict has created the biggest energy supply shock yet with more than 12 million barrels per day offline.
- In an April 3 Goldman Sachs note, analysts estimated Asia’s net oil imports fell about 9 million barrels per day by late March and reported diesel and jet prices up by roughly 150 percent.
- Early rationing and outages are now visible, with Thailand and India most cited in rationing reports, the Philippines declaring a national fuel emergency, and many Australian stations running dry.
- Markets are swinging with war signals, as WTI jumped 11.4 percent to $111.54 after the president’s April 1 threats and negotiators circulated a 45‑day ceasefire proposal that aims to reopen the strait.
- The disruption is spreading beyond fuel, with fertilizer prices jumping at key U.S. hubs and helium supplies from Qatar curtailed after plant shutdowns, risking lower crop yields and delays at chip factories that rely on these inputs.