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Hormuz Disruption Forces Gulf Output Cuts as Oil Whipsaws From $120 Peak

Officials consider strategic reserve releases, with the U.S. granting India a short waiver for limited Russian oil.

Overview

  • Brent crude surged to an intraday high near $119.5 per barrel on March 9 before sliding toward $92 on March 10 after talk of coordinated stock releases, leaving prices well above pre-conflict levels.
  • Iran’s ban on transit through the Strait of Hormuz left more than 150 tankers stalled offshore and drove Gulf producers to curb output by an estimated 6–7 million barrels per day as storage filled.
  • G7 governments discussed tapping strategic reserves with the International Energy Agency in volumes reported at 300–400 million barrels, but no coordinated release has been approved.
  • The United States granted India a temporary exemption to receive Russian cargoes loaded before March 5, a move estimated at 20–30 million barrels and characterized by analysts as a limited, short-term measure.
  • The White House predicted oil and gasoline prices will fall after the Iran campaign and cited claimed operational gains, while Saudi Aramco’s chief warned inventories are at a five-year low and prolonged disruption could damage the global economy.