Overview
- The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under a U.S. naval blockade in what the IEA chief calls the biggest threat to global energy security on record.
- The Energy Transitions Commission says the shutdown has disrupted 18.4 million barrels a day of oil, about 20% of global LNG trade, and a third of traded fertilizers, with most of those flows bound for Asia.
- ETC projects $1–$2 trillion in extra global fuel spending in 2026 if high prices hold after oil rose to $90–$120 a barrel in Asia and LNG topped $25 per MMBtu, with damage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan likely to restrain supply for years.
- The shock is reaching households through higher transport, power and food costs, as fertilizer shortages strain East African markets and Japan’s currency weakens despite large strategic oil reserves.
- Evidence from Spain and Singapore points to cleaner power softening price spikes because wind, solar and batteries run on installed equipment rather than constant fuel deliveries, and insurers and investors are already shifting toward transition assets as the ETC urges faster action on renewables, EVs, heat pumps, green fertilizers and efficiency.