Overview
- The Iran–Israel missile exchanges on June 7–8 renewed fighting and undermined diplomacy to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed and has halted much tanker traffic.
- OPEC+ approved a fourth consecutive monthly rise in its July production target of 188,000 barrels per day but analysts say many members cannot physically restore exports while Hormuz stays disrupted.
- Global benchmark oil has stayed below $100 per barrel but jumped into the mid‑to‑high $90s after the latest strikes, reflecting renewed short‑term volatility in prices.
- Markets have so far been cushioned by a large U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve release and higher U.S. crude exports together with a sharp fall in Chinese crude imports, which analysts identify as the biggest single offset to lost Gulf barrels.
- The supply shock is structural because re‑opening Hormuz and restarting idled fields and shipping lanes will take months, which risks further inventory drawdowns, higher prices and greater inflationary pressure for oil‑importing households and businesses if the blockade continues.