Overview
- The HKUST-led Deep Diffusion Model uses Fengyun‑4 infrared satellite data and generative diffusion techniques to track the evolution of convective clouds.
- It forecasts thunderstorms and heavy rainfall up to four hours in advance, extending the typical 20‑minute to two‑hour nowcasting range.
- Forecasts update roughly every 15 minutes, and the team reports accuracy improvements of more than 15% compared with existing systems.
- Training drew on 2018–2021 satellite records with validation on spring and summer samples from 2022 and 2023, and the peer-reviewed study appeared in PNAS in December.
- China’s Meteorological Administration and the Hong Kong Observatory are working to incorporate the model into operational forecasts to strengthen responses after a notably stormy 2025.