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Homeowners Warned of £3,000-a-Year Mortgage Hit in BoE 'Trumpflation' Scenario

Moneyfacts says the Bank’s worst-case path would lift typical mortgage rates to above 6.5 percent.

Overview

  • Moneyfacts estimates a typical £250,000, 25-year loan would rise from about £1,445 a month to roughly £1,727, adding about £3,380 a year.
  • The Bank of England’s stress test models up to six rate rises that would lift Bank rate from 3.75 percent to 5.25 percent if an oil shock keeps inflation high.
  • Because mortgage pricing usually sits 1.5 to 1.75 points above Bank rate, that path would push average homeowner borrowing costs to above about 6.5 percent.
  • Markets now expect roughly three increases this year and lenders have pulled many cheaper deals, with average two- and five-year fixes at 5.77 percent and 5.68 percent.
  • Even without the worst case, the Bank said average monthly payments are set to rise about £80 over three years as higher energy and food costs squeeze households.