Overview
- The Siena Research Institute’s likely‑voter survey, conducted Aug. 3–6 among 811 voters, shows Gov. Kathy Hochul ahead 49% to Bruce Blakeman’s 39% with a margin of error of about ±4.2–4.6 points.
- The poll marks a drop from Siena’s June registered‑voter result when Hochul led by roughly 20 points, underlining how the likely‑voter frame and turnout uncertainty tighten the race.
- Regional splits drive the gap: Hochul leads by roughly 64‑19 in New York City while Blakeman holds an 8‑point advantage in downstate suburbs and a narrow edge with independents.
- Immediate campaign flashpoints are shaping messaging: a Staten Island judge issued a temporary restraining order on the pied‑à‑terre tax and Hochul’s one‑year moratorium on data centers polls well with some voters.
- Blakeman’s campaign has rejected the Siena result and is preparing for a President Trump stop and increased outside spending that could sway suburban turnout, making turnout and independent voters the key variables to watch.