Overview
- The S&P 500 has logged three straight double‑digit annual gains since 2023, a rare streak that frames today’s risk‑reward debate.
- Across midterm years since 1957, the index has averaged just a 1% return with an average intra‑year drawdown of 18%, and it slipped into correction territory in 12 of 17 cycles.
- Longview Economics’ summary shows the S&P 500 has averaged a 13.6% gain in the 12 months following midterms dating back to 1926, with negative results only after 1930 and 1938.
- Analysts attribute the pre‑election softness to policy uncertainty that tends to ease after results clarify the regulatory and fiscal outlook.
- Both articles caution that historical patterns are not predictive and recommend steady approaches such as dollar‑cost averaging rather than trying to time the cycle.