Overview
- The S&P 500 has logged three straight double-digit annual gains—24% in 2023, 23% in 2024, and 16% in 2025—an eighth such streak since 1926.
- Historical records indicate the index often stumbles in the year before midterm elections but rebounds in the year after.
- A Longview Economics table of the past 10 midterms pairs the largest pre-midterm drawdowns with the subsequent 12-month returns.
- Across data back to 1926, the average post-midterm 12-month return is 13.6%, with negative outcomes only after the 1930 and 1938 votes.
- The report stresses that past performance is not predictive and advises dollar-cost averaging over attempts to time the cycle.