Overview
- Recent late‑May polls show Republican Steve Hilton with a slim lead over Democrats Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer, but results vary by poll and margin of error.
- California uses a top‑two open primary that advances the two highest vote‑getters regardless of party, so the final November matchups could be Hilton versus a Democrat or two Democrats facing each other.
- Several polls showing Hilton ahead were sponsored by campaigns while an independent PPIC survey released May 29 found Becerra narrowly ahead, so polling must be read with attention to sponsorship and methodology.
- Hilton has risen on heavy media exposure and a presidential endorsement from President Donald Trump and is campaigning on tax cuts, housing expansion on suburban fringes, tougher public‑safety measures, and cooperation with federal immigration enforcement.
- With early voting and mail ballots already in circulation, county‑level turnout rates and how undecided and independent voters break will determine which two of the crowded field of more than 50 candidates advance.