Higher Inflation Lifts Estimate for 2027 Social Security COLA to 3.9%

Private analysts now expect a larger increase pending the Social Security Administration’s October decision.

Overview

A new Senior Citizens League estimate pegs the 2027 cost-of-living increase at 3.9%, up from its earlier 2.8% call.
If that estimate holds, the average retired worker would see about $81 more a month, raising a typical check from $2,081 to $2,162.
The Social Security Administration bases the annual COLA on third‑quarter CPI‑W inflation and will set the official figure in October 2026.
TSCL surveys report 94% of recipients say rising costs, including Medicare premiums, erode their COLA, and 57% skipped some medical care last year.
Budget analysts cite a separate risk to program finances, noting a trust fund could be depleted by 2032 and benefits could drop 24% without action.