Heavy Rain and Flash‑Flood Threat Persists Across Southwest, Plains and Midwest

Overview

• The Weather Prediction Center issued multiple mesoscale precipitation discussions Thursday that warn ongoing heavy showers and thunderstorms lifting north across eastern Arizona into New Mexico and southwest Colorado with rainfall rates to about 1.5–2+ inches per hour and likely localized flash flooding.
• Separate WPC discussions for the Central Plains and Midwest describe hourly rates near 2.5–3 inches and spot totals to 4–5 inches in hotspots which, combined with saturated soils, raises the chance of widely scattered flash flooding.
• A focused WPC alert for the Permian Basin northwest of Midland, Texas, notes thunderstorms producing hourly rates near 2.5 inches and additional local totals to about 4 inches that could cause flash flooding in vulnerable low‑lying areas.
• The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring isolated severe threats for parts of northeastern Utah and southern/central Idaho with the potential for large hail and damaging gusts but currently judges watch issuance unlikely.
• Forecasters cite very high precipitable water, pockets of instability and southeasterly steering that favor training cells, and they warn that burn scars, slot canyons, arroyos and urban drainage will be most at risk so residents should follow local NWS radar updates and warnings for sudden flooding and travel impacts.