Overview
- The Deutscher Wetterdienst and major models expect the south and southwest to warm first this week with widespread highs of about 30–35°C and some local peaks higher.
- European ECMWF ensembles increasingly show a persistent Omega high that would produce several consecutive very hot days while the US GFS remains more variable but includes runs with mid- to upper-30s and occasional 38–40°C peaks.
- A weather split persists across Germany: the north and northeast will stay cooler with showers while the DWD has issued thunderstorm warnings for parts of Bavaria that include gusts to about 70 km/h, heavy short-term rain and hail.
- Soils already dry after late‑June heat raise the risk of wildfires and make a trapped heat dome more likely, which would increase heat stress, night-time warming and pressure on infrastructure and agriculture.
- Meteorologists say the next 48–72 hours of model runs and DWD updates are critical to decide whether the heat becomes prolonged or is broken up by incoming disturbances, so regional warnings may change rapidly.