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Heat-Related Deaths Double in Latin America, 2025 Lancet Countdown Finds

The regional assessment ties warming to outsized risks for infants and older adults, driving sizable mortality and productivity costs.

Overview

  • The report estimates a 103% rise in heat-attributable mortality, from about 1.1 to 2.2 deaths per 100,000 between 1990–1999 and 2012–2021, or roughly 5,000 to 13,000 deaths a year, with 2024 logged as the hottest year on record.
  • Vulnerable groups faced sharp exposure increases, with infants experiencing 4.5 times more heatwave days and adults 65+ seeing a tenfold rise in 2015–2024 versus 1981–2000, while hours at risk of moderate heat stress during walking and running rose 29% and 24%.
  • Average continental temperatures are up about 1°C versus 2001–2010, with Bolivia near +2°C and Argentina about +0.5°C, and urban heat islands intensifying risks in large cities such as Buenos Aires, Córdoba and Mendoza.
  • Heat’s economic toll reached a median US$855 million per year in mortality costs and about US$52 billion in lost productivity over the last decade, disproportionately affecting agriculture and construction, with Argentina alone losing more than US$2.18 billion from heat-associated deaths in 2015–2024.
  • Wildfire danger is rising across the region; in Argentina, 95% of ignitions are human-caused and prolonged drought has heightened risk in provinces including Salta, Formosa, Santa Cruz and Chaco, despite early-warning systems and protocols that remain insufficient.