Overview
- The World Weather Attribution study published in late July found higher temperatures increased potential evapotranspiration and were the main cause of this spring–summer drought rather than rainfall shortfalls alone.
- Researchers from 12 countries, including contributors from the German Weather Service, analyzed precipitation, soil moisture and PET and concluded climate change has made soil drought about five times more likely in Western Europe and roughly eleven times more likely in Eastern Europe.
- Record-low July river flows on the Rhine and Danube and visible crop damage — such as France’s expected low maize yields — show the drought is already affecting inland shipping, hydropower and farm incomes.
- Scientists warn the observed evaporation-driven drying is evident at about 1.4°C of global warming and that a rise to roughly 2.8°C would make these extreme drying events substantially more frequent without rapid cuts to emissions and stronger water management.
- Researchers and national experts urge better drought preparedness, including systematic water monitoring and clearer allocation rules at national and EU levels, because existing systems were designed for a less warm climate.