Overview
- The New York Fed paper published Feb. 12 found that roughly 86% to 94% of the 2025 tariff burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers, based on limited price reductions by foreign exporters and high pass‑through to import prices.
- National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CNBC the study was the "worst paper" he had seen and said the authors should be "disciplined," arguing it overlooked shifts in import quantities, reshoring and wage effects.
- Multiple analyses, including recent work by the Congressional Budget Office and studies from Harvard, the University of Chicago and the Kiel Institute, reported similarly high pass‑through to U.S. import prices; the New York Fed declined comment.
- The researchers noted average tariffs rose from about 2.6% to roughly 13% in 2025 and estimated the domestic share of the burden eased from about 94% early in the year to 86% by November.
- Economists warned Hassett’s remarks risk chilling independent research, and the legal outlook for the tariff regime remains uncertain with a Supreme Court review of the administration’s emergency tariff authority pending.