Overview
- Analysts citing a new ISW assessment on Saturday say IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle now dominate Iran’s decisions and have shut down pushback from pragmatist figures.
- Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, arrived in Islamabad on Friday for mediation efforts as U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner prepared to follow, yet accounts describe talks as stalled.
- Reports tracked by ISW indicate Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has grown frustrated with internal divides and has considered, or may have tendered, his exit from the negotiating team.
- U.S. media report that the Pentagon is weighing contingency plans that could target senior Iranian military leaders if diplomacy fails, and a Defense Department official said all options remain available.
- Iranian leaders have posted images and statements that stress unity, yet multiple outlets describe a real struggle inside the regime and highlight Vahidi’s rise, including his Interpol red notice and Western sanctions.