Overview
- The Resolve Political Monitor, conducted June 8–13 for major mastheads, surveyed 1,801 voters and found One Nation on 29% of the primary vote while Labor was on 28% and the Coalition on a record-low 20%.
- In the first three-way preferred-prime-minister question, 33% named Pauline Hanson, 29% named Anthony Albanese and 16% named Angus Taylor with 22% undecided.
- Pollsters and commentators link the shift to frustration over the high cost of living and falling public support for Labor’s May budget tax changes, with backing for ending the 50% capital gains tax discount down to about 31%.
- Resolve’s data show One Nation’s support has broadened beyond its traditional base into suburban, regional and migrant communities, a change analysts say could alter outcomes in federal and state contests if it persists.
- Campaign and parliamentary consequences are already being discussed in Canberra and Victoria where strategists warn a sustained One Nation surge could produce hung parliaments or force new coalition arrangements at upcoming elections.